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Greetings!
I hope you all had a pleasant holiday season and I wish you and
your family a healthy, prosperous year ahead.
| Year-end Market Results |
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I am happy with how our clients fared this year. As many of
you know, I run two basic portfolios. For those clients that
were fully invested in the market for the entire year and held
moderately aggressive positions, the average return was 3.2%.
The conservative "senior" allocations brought in an annual
return of 5.8%, after fees but before any anticipated taxes.
It should be noted that no two portfolios are identical due to
individual risk tolerance and time horizon. And to be
compliant with the SEC I will remind all readers this should
not be viewed as an advertisement for past or future
performance by the firm. It should be used as a benchmark for
you to gauge your personal portfolio success.
This year’s market favored conservative plays - including
natural resources and utilities, accounting for the better
than average returns in the "retirees" allocations.
For those of you that closely track the Dow, this is the
first time since 2002 that it has posted a loss. Of the Dow’s
30 components, 16 lost ground for the year, with the biggest
decline coming from General Motors. GM hit a 23-year low,
experiencing a 51.5% decrease in share price value.
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| Why REIT'S Are Still In Your Portfolio |
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Many clients may silently be questioning why REIT’s are
still in their portfolios. Everyone has heard the buzz about
the housing bubble bursting and the slowing in new housing
starts. I would like to take the opportunity to remind you
that REIT’s expand well beyond the private housing market, and
it is time to focus on apartment REIT’s.
The rise in housing prices coupled with the rise in
interest rates are making new homes less affordable for many
individuals. This opens up an opportunity for apartments,
which had felt pressure from the low interest rates making
home ownership so readily available. Apartment REIT’s posted
double digit returns last year, and also paid out attractive
dividends according to the National Association of Real Estate
Investment Trusts.
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| Asia Minor? |
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As I stroll through my high school memory bank, some
where I remember a discussion on Asia Minor. Asia Minor is an
oxymoron for this region of the world right now. It is a
dynamic and growing region and no longer a minor player in the
world of investments.
As most you know, almost all portfolios are holding some
type of Matthews Funds, whether it is Asian Growth &
Income or Pacific Tiger. These mutual funds have been in place
for many years, showing steady growth year after year, and
have long been a core position in most portfolios. The Growth
& Income fund has been closed to new investors for over a
year. Clients that currently hold positions in the fund can
continue to make future contributions.
For those of you that are new to my management the answer
is no — no, it is not too late to move money into Asia. There
are several reasons why I am still encouraged by the Asian
markets. First you need to think about the composite
countries: China, Korea, India, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong
and Japan. Then focus should be placed on consumption levels
and GDP growth. As well as a diverse consumer base which
continues to develop in these regions. Cities like Shanghai,
Seoul, Macau, Hanoi and Mumbai all now have shopping districts
in these populated areas. Discretionary spending has increased
as well. A change in some of these cultures is underway,
shifting to a more moderate modern state.
My latest foray into this investment market comes in the
way of the India fund. This is not for the faint of heart.
First, this fund has only been in existence for a few months,
so we do not have a track record to monitor the managers’
performance. The second consideration is that although you are
purchasing the fund on an American exchange in reality it
ultimately settles on a less efficient Indian exchange. So
buyer beware. My money is still on this new entry into the
market, and I have high expectations for the fund over the
long term. Remember investments are to be bought and
monitored, these are not day trading investments. If anyone
would like to discuss this market sector or would like more
information about this fund, please contact me at my office.
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| An Inverted Yield Curve -- Will Recession Follow This Time? |
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Those of you that monitor the market may have been
reading about the inverted yield curve that occurred in recent
weeks. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term
maturities (2-year Treasury notes) pay a higher interest rate
than longer-term maturities (10-year Treasuries). This event
usually occurs prior to an economic downturn. If memory serves
me correctly, I believe it has happened in six out of the last
nine occurrences.
However, few economists expect a recession in 2006.
Their reasoning is that we are currently experiencing a cycle
of healthy growth and benign inflation suggesting that the
market is not signaling a slowdown, which is usually the case
prior to most recessionary trends.
The most recent recession that resulted from the inverted
yield curve signal occurred in 2000. This was a period of
aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrary to where
we are in this rate cycle. Still, some economists believe
there is a 15% — 20% chance that we will see a recession
sometime this year.
What to do? At this point I will continue with my existing
strategy, which is — manage to the market. At this writing we
are having a strong first week of January. I will continue to
focus on opportunities in the global markets, as that is where
I see dominant growth. In terms of individual stocks, I have
not found any individual equities whose pricing has been in
line with what I would like to add in to portfolios, but I do
have a dozen or so on my watch list. In closing, recessions do
not mean all stocks go down. There are stocks and sectors that
benefit from these trends. Only time will tell, and assets
will be reallocated as trends dictate.
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| Your Planner in the News |
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I was recently recognized in the 2005 — 2006 Guide to
America’s Best Financial Planners. This guide is put together
by the Consumers’ Research Council of America, an independent
research company that evaluates professional services.
To be identified as an advisor of merit, consideration is
given to education, professional designations/financial
certifications, continuing education, years in practice, and
professional affiliations. This recognition was a pleasant
surprise and it is quite an honor to be listed among this
group of exceptional financial advisors. For information about
the organization you can visit their website at
www.consumersreseatchconcl.org
To update my clients on the year ahead, I plan to take 2006
off from teaching at Bryant University and spend that time
hopefully finishing my book that it seems I have been laboring
over forever. Also, letters will be going this month to
schedule our annual performance reviews. Please contact my
office to schedule a time where we can review your asset
allocations and discuss any changes that may effect future
planning decisions.
I encourage all clients to use this newsletter to
supplement their knowledge base, but also to take time to call
me when questions arise. My teaching skills extend beyond the
classroom and I will attest to the fact that an educated
client develops from a trusted relationship whose basis is
formed from an open line of communication over a period of
time. The relationships I have developed with my clients and
colleagues are the cornerstones of my business. Their
confidence in me is my primary source of new business. Your
referrals are welcome and always appreciated. I thank you all
for contributing to Coastal Financial Planning, Inc.’s success
in 2oo5.
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| Royce Premier Fund Is Closing |
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Effective January 10, 2006 Royce Premier Fund is closing to
all new investors. This follows last year's closing of Royce's
Low-Priced Stock Fund. Information about the fund family can
be found on their site at:
www.roycefunds.com
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Our Question of the Quarter... |
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What percentage of gift cards goes unused?
a. 8.5% b. 10.4% c.
18.2% d. 20.5%
This year a total of $18.5 billion worth of gift cards were
given out over the holiday season according to the National
Retail Federation. Both consumers and retailers love the
concept, because the receiptant chooses something he or she
will like and the retailer knows not all gift cards will be
redeemed at all or some at a partial face value. According to
a study by the TowerGroup, 8.5% of the value of these cards go
unredeemed. This accounts for $4.8 billion annually. So if you
guessed A, you are correct, and probably put your gift cards
to good use.
This question actually appeared on Yahoo Finance in
December and for the record, I guessed wrong. I had a lot less
faith in the consumers’ ability to stay organized and remember
where they put their gift cards. I think I would attribute
this pessimism to being the mother of three boys, as boys
exhibit difficulty finding anything they own, let alone
something of value. |
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