|
Dear Client,
Season’s Beating’s (yes that was an intended pun)! We were
having a wonderful season until the season’s high of 14,000 came
crashing down on us eroding much of those wonderful gains we saw
into December. More on that later.
| 2007 - The Final Numbers |
 |
|
The following are the year-end market results by market
index through December 28, 2007:
| Index |
W/O
12/24 |
W/E 12/28
|
Change |
%
Change |
YTD |
| DJIA |
13,450.65 |
13,365.87 |
-84.78 |
-0.6% |
7.2% |
| NASDAQ< |
2,691.99 |
2,674.46 |
-17.53 |
-0.7% |
10.7% |
| S&P
500 |
1,484.46 |
1,478.49 |
-5.97 |
-0.4% |
4.2% |
| Russell
2000 |
785.60 |
771.76 |
-13.84 |
-1.8% |
-2.0% |
As many of you know, we had a slow and steady growth in our
portfolios through the year, then a huge rallying in October
and then the mid-November drop.
The drop came on the
heels of what was anticipated to be a Fed funds rate cut of 50
basis points. Instead, the Feds disappointed the market with a
25 basis point cut, and caused a market pull back.
The
thought behind the market pull back was, the greater the rate
cut, the lower interest rate. It would also affect those
consumers who already own housing with variable rate
mortgages. The loosening of the Fed rate, it is hoped, would
trickle down to this consumer, and free up cash to avoid
defaults on home payments.
This year’s market favored energy, utilities, industrial
materials, health care, consumer staples and technology. In
the year ahead I will be focusing in on Gold and Precious
Metals as a hedge in most portfolios as well as Natural
Resources. I will begin to reduce positions in small caps and
consumer discretionary goods, until I see a trend that
indicates otherwise.
The following are the portfolios’ performance numbers for
the year: my moderately aggressive model came in at 9.9% after
fees, and including reinvested dividends. The moderately
conservative portfolio came in at 5.8% after fees, and
including reinvested dividends.
Please remember that these portfolios have been invested
for a full year, and that no two portfolios are identical.
Additionally, all individuals possess different risk
tolerances and investment time horizons. Lastly, in the
interest of compliance, this information should not be viewed
as an advertisement for my investment services. It should be
used as a benchmark to gauge your own personal portfolio’s
performance.
|
| Will The Economy Keep Afloat or Is Recession on the
Horizon? |
 |
- Falling housing prices
- The mortgage mess
- The weak dollar
- Rising oil prices
Is your portfolio looking better to you already? One year
ago a one-year CD yielded 5.01%, today it is yielding 3.31%.
Gold was selling at $636 at the end of 2006; today it is
trading around $839. These changes, although something you may
not purchase directly, are directly effecting your
investments.
Measures of inflation are easily seen in
the CPI components of our daily lives. For example, the 12-
month change in transportation increased 9.6%, in medical care
it was 5%.
Home prices vs. personal savings are another cause of major
economic concern. Although on a national level home prices are
dropping, consumer savings is at a national rate of -.5%. This
would mean the average household is in debt.
Let’s not forget those homebuilders - the Department of
Commerce has shown a slow down in total building permits
requested; however: the consumption gap between consumer
spending on housing and permits as of 12/31/2007 is around
15%.
Now for the positives: The economy has continued to
create jobs at a steady rate and unemployment remains low - on
the average 5%.
Analysts expect single digit growth for
2008 - growth is always better than flat or negative
numbers.
There is a strong likelihood of a 50 basis
point cut by the Feds in the month of January, this is the
catalyst needed to spark the anemic financial
markets.
The Feds have stated that core inflation has
improved modestly in 2007.
So bottom line, what does this all mean? My
interpretation is heavily weighted on the Fed rate cut. I
believe that there is value in the market, particularly with
financial stocks like Citigroup that were hurt in the subprime
market issue.
This stock has a particularly attractive
dividend and the PE is in line with the financial markets once
again. I also think there are continued opportunities in the
health care sectors with the graying of America. I do think
that you have to be cautious with what you buy and move slowly
into the markets as they play out through the year.
|
| Iberdrola (IBDRY) Making News in 2008 - AT&T Boosts
Dividend |
 |
|
The board of Energy East, a large utility holding
company, voted to merge their company into the large Spanish
electric utility company, Iberdrola. The merge is expected to
take place during the second half of 2008. As many of you will
recall, Iberdola purchased Scottish Power, which is how you
are now shareholders of this stock.
AT&T raised its dividend on Tuesday, December 11, 2007
by 12.7%. They also announced a share buyback. The company
indicated it would buy back 400 million shares, which
represents about 7% of the company stock. They expect the
repurchase to be completed by the end of 2009. Some of you may
remember the repurchase plan previously announced in 2006,
where AT&T repurchased $13 billion shares under that
authorization. This plan will supersede that announcement.
The new dividend will rise to 40 cents from 35.5 cents. It
will be paid out on February 1 to shareholders of record as of
January 10.
|
| SEC Finds Fraud at Investment Seminars for
Seniors |
 |
|
A new study by the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) finds that "free lunch" seminars may in fact
mislead seniors into making unwise investments. These were the
findings that resulted from complaints filed with the SEC
against individuals and companies that set-up schemes to
defraud thousands of seniors of their retirement
dollars.
The seminars were presented as "free lunches" in
exchange for seniors to listen to investment advice. They were
advertised with claims like "Immediately add $100,000 to your
net worth". These seminars were actually inappropriate sales
pitches, which included recommending risky investments to
conservative individuals and suggested illiquid investments to
those who needed cash.
The SEC filed charges against 26 individuals and companies
in connection with $428 million in a securities fraud scheme
that targeted seniors. The complaint also alleges that the
sales people who sold the investments collected commissions
totaling more than $72 million.
Buyer beware, there is certainly nothing
wrong with going to your local library and listening to a
advisor speaking on a topic. However, when someone is willing
to give you a free meal there is generally a lucrative
contract involved in the seminar for that adviser.
Please discuss this with your senior parents, and be
cognizant of what they are doing with their money. The local
banks are also guilty of trying the sell seniors’ annuities
and tying their money up for some time.
I know our
parents don’t often like to have this discussion with their
children, but it does help to explain to them that you are
looking out for their best interest and not the
salesperson that services them.
|
| Your Planner in the News... |
 |
Your planner in the news. . . .this month Is
replaced with Your US Military in the News... Many of
us have had the good fortune of spending the holidays with our
families and friends. Our troops all over the world are not as
fortunate.
The following site www.AnySoldier.com links individuals who
would like to make contact with a solider in any branch of the
service. It also provides them with support and you can send
along any small package if you choose. This can make a big
difference in a soldier’s day.
Special thanks to
Michelle Girasole, of Precision
Web Marketing, who is a friend and client, for bring this
site to my attention.
The year ahead. Letters will be going out this month
to schedule our annual performance reviews. Please contact
my office to schedule a time where we can review your asset
allocations and discuss any changes that may effect future
planning decisions.
I encourage all clients to use
this newsletter to supplement their knowledge base, but also
to take time to call me when questions arise.
Please feel free to share this newsletter with a
friend. You need not be a client to be a subscriber.
As always, if you have questions regarding the
content of the newsletter, please call. I will attest to the
fact that an educated client develops from a trusted
relationship whose basis is formed from an open line of
communication over a period of time.
The relationships
I have developed with my clients and colleagues are the
cornerstone of my business.
Their confidence in me is
my primary source of new business. Your referrals are welcome
and always appreciated. I thank you all for contributing to
Coastal Financial Planning, Inc.’s success in 2007
|
|
|
Our Question of the Quarter Is... |
|
|
|
Foreclosures have made the headlines on a regular basis.
Some regions were hit harder than others.
What was
the national foreclosure rate in the Third Quarter of 2007 as
a percentage?
a. 1.0% b. 2.5% c.
0.5% d. 0.8%
Although the foreclosure news made the headlines
everywhere, it only resulted in .51% of the national homes,
which represents 1 home in every 196. Most of the homes that
were subject to these terms were financed with 80 + 20 loan,
meaning that they borrowed the first 80% down and then took a
home equity loan out for the residual 20%. These lenders were
generally not your conventional banks or credit unions, which
follow their due diligence when lending funds.
If you are looking at buying one of these foreclosed
properties you will find that the loan amount, in many cases,
is higher than the property value. In most cases you will need
to work with the lien holder to get a fair
price.
Lastly, if you answered C you were correct.
|
|